Blue: A Tale of Two MVP’s, Part 2

What is everyone’s definition of “Most Valuable Player”? In sports, you hear the arguments all the time–that the MVP award should go to a player whose most important to his individual team, or that the award should go to the best player in the given League.

NFL history has shown us that their MVP award is some weird cross between the two ideals. For example, in 2009, Brett Favre joined the Minnesota Vikings and took a team that had lost in the first round of the playoffs the year before and, while having his best season of his career (68.8% completion, 33 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 4202 yards, 107.2 passer rating), took the Vikings to a 12-4 record which was good enough for the second seed in the NFC. Peyton Manning, however, won the award after his Indianapolis Colts won their first 14 games, with a statline of 68.6% completion, 33 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 4500 yards, and a 99.9 passer rating. Favre, as a matter of fact, finished fourth in voting behind Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, and Manning–three quarterbacks whose teams had better records that season.

Interesting.

So when the question sifts to Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III and whether or not they should be considered for MVP voting, the question becomes why? Why are Griffin and Luck, who, as I highlighted in the previous article, don’t quite have the credentials that other great rookies have had, up for nomination? Is it their position more than their play? How strong, really, is their case for the MVP?

The quarterback position has always been regarded as the most important position on the field, but one could argue that the position has been overhyped when it comes to winning the award.

In the history of the Associated Press’s Most Valuable Player Award, voters have preferred quarterbacks and running backs to any other position on the field. 54 of the 57 awards given have gone to a quarterback (37 times) or a running back (17 times). No other offensive position has won the award, and the remaining three awards have gone to a defensive tackle, a defensive lineman, and a placekicker.

ProFootballWeekly brings up an interesting point about MVP bias:

Most would agree that the MVP should go to the player whose contributions have the greatest impact on the success of his team. But the MVP rarely fits this description. Instead, MVP voters tend to look at two things: (1) The league’s best teams, and (2) the quarterbacks and running backs on those teams. Of course, if someone gains 2,000 yards it grabs everyone’s attention, but that in itself is a flaw of the award. Some statistics are hollow, in that they mean very little to the success of the team. For example, Calvin Johnson is not far off the pace of setting a single-season record for receiving yards this season, but no one could argue he’s an MVP candidate — nor would they, because Johnson does not play quarterback or running back. On the other hand, if Chris Johnson was approaching Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing mark for a 4-7 Titans squad, he would, at the very least, be part of the discussion. It’s a double standard.

Rookies are ignored. Defense, as a whole, is ignored. Wide receivers and tight ends have historically been ignored. And there is a better chance of seeing a man walk on Mars in our lifetime than witnessing an offensive lineman take home the honor.

Reggie Wayne, who has been having a career year for himself and Andrew Luck, has not once been mentioned for any type of award. How much recognition has Wayne received on any level for leading the NFL in targets and placing fourth in receptions and playing the role as much more than an ample cushion for any rookie quarterback?

MVP bias towards the quarterback position has gotten so ridiculous that Peyton Manning was considered a top candidate for the award despite not playing a single down due to a neck injury that sidelined him for the entirety of the season. As a matter of fact, Peyton Manning placed relatively high on the NFL’s “Top 100 Players of 2012” list–just for not playing! As ludicrous as it is, Colts fans would even tell you that Tom Brady’s value to his franchise is overrated due to the Patriots finishing 11-5 in 2008 without him; even if that feat is more of a testament to the quality of New England’s organization than the importance of Tom Brady.

But what about the other side of the argument? How much stock do you put into both rookies’ presence on the team? Luck’s Colts squad went 2-14 last season, and now they could capture ten wins on the season and become the third team in NFL history to make the playoffs after going 2-14 or worse the season before. Griffin has rejuvenated life into a franchise that not even Donovan McNabb could kick-start into action; his Redskins could make a playoff run and see postseason action for the first time since 2007.

The current MVP candidates–Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, J.J. Watt, Adrian Peterson–although their performances this season are best described as “ethereal”  and they have certainly outplayed Luck and Griffin, Tom Brady’s Patriots already have more losses than they had last season, and they also made a Super Bowl appearance last year. Peyton Manning? His Broncos, though quarterbacked by Tim Tebow, won a playoff game in 2011. J.J. Watt’s Texans did the same last season, and Adrian Peterson’s squad is at 7-6 and third in the NFC North despite him being on track for 2,000 yards rushing this season. Which holds more weight? Besides that being the argument between Luck and Griffin for the Rookie of the Year Award, it can be used for the MVP award as well. What is more important for an individual award–wins or performance? If the former is the criteria you choose to use, then both Griffin and Luck have a fighting chance. The same is not so true for the latter, however.

Maybe we should just give the MVP to Seattle’s under-appreciated rookie Russell Wilson; he has a nice mix of both wins and performance under his sleeve. He even has his oh-so-necessary MVP moment of the year.

View “A Tale of Two MVP’s, Part 1” here. 

Blue: A Tale of Two MVP’s, Part 1

One from Stanford, the other from Baylor. One with potential that exceeds our imagination, the other? The same. These two were the most hyped quarterbacks in an NFL Draft since Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf.

But unlike the original story, Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III are looking to complete the story the way we expect and long for it to be completed–at least in their first season in the League. With the two players nothing short of neck and neck in the eyes of the fans and the eyes of their opponents, Offensive Rookie of the Year discussions usually start and finish something like this:

“RG3 is playing better!”

“Andrew Luck has more wins!”

“Look at Griffin’s passer rating!”

“Look at Luck’s yards!”

“He’s leading the team!”

“2-14!”

And the conversations never stop there. As a matter of fact, they have escalated even further. No longer are we talking about the Rookie of the Year; tones about RG3 and Luck’s NFL Most Valuable Player award eligibility have slowly grown louder in the last couple of weeks.

I am an Eagles fan. Having said that, I would love to see Andrew Luck in my division rather than Robert Griffin III, and him posting a perfect passer rating to go along with four touchdown passes against us a couple of weeks ago isn’t the only reason why. This tweet from the NFL’s Twitter account, however, would lead me to believe that my view of Griffin isn’t quite the norm. Can either Luck or Griffin become the 2012 NFL MVP as a rookie?

Before we get into MVP discussion, however, we have to look back at the history of the MVP award and rookies.

As it stands, only one rookie has ever won the MVP award in the 56-year history of the event. Why? There have never been more rookies truly worthy of winning the award, ever? Let’s take a look back at the history of rookies in the NFL, and in particular look at some of the greatest rookie seasons of all-time, and hypothesize whether or not another rookie should have or really made a case for the MVP award.

1978: Earl Campbell, a rookie, runs for 1450 yards and ten touchdowns, leading a Houston Oilers team to a 10-6 record which would later make an AFC Championship appearance. The Associated Press’s MVP award, however, went to Terry Bradshaw, who threw 28 touchdowns to 20 interceptions and 2915 yards.

1983: In the 1982 strike-shortened season, the Los Angeles Rams went 2-7. In 1983, Eric Dickerson burst onto the season with 1808 yards on 390 carries and the Rams returned to the playoffs at 9-7. Dickerson’s season has been heralded as possibly the greatest rookie season ever, but the MVP award was handed to Joe Theismann of the Redskins, whose team only improved to 14-2 from 8-1 in the strike-shortened season in the year previous.

1998: Randy Moss, a man who would grow and live to be one of the greatest receivers to ever play football, set a rookie record with 17 touchdown receptions on a Minnesota Vikings football team that would set an NFL record for most points scored in a season (a record that would later be broken by the 2007 New England Patriots). His touchdown statistic that lead the NFL that year and his 1313 yards were achieved in 11 starts. The MVP award was given to Terrell Davis, who ran for 2,000 yards that season, but his Broncos team had won the Super Bowl the year previous while Randy Moss’s presence was a part of a 5-game improvement from the season prior and his 15-1 Vikings squad made an NFC Championship appearance that year.

The only rookie to win the AP NFL MVP Award was Jim Brown in the inaugural giveaway of the award in 1957. Brown would also win it in 1958.

While there have been many incredible rookie seasons in NFL history since 1957, the short list above mentions some of the rookies who could have realistically won the award that season.

Should rookies be eligible to win the MVP award? While it is obvious that rookies, more often than not, do not bring groundbreaking campaigns to a league in their first year, the fact that there are a number who have and yet there has only been a single rookie who has won the award is peculiar. It is interesting to wonder if there is a bias against rookies winning the NFL MVP Award, similar to how the reactions to Johnny Manziel out of Texas A&M winning the Heisman are toned down in part to the wariness of a freshman winning the award for the first time.

To me, the Most Valuable Player award should go to whoever is the most valuable player in the NFL, rookie or not. There always has been, however, obvious hesitation at crowning less experienced participants in any professional sport.

Some years, MVP voting is easy–2007 comes to mind first. Other years, it’s more of a toss-up. With Peyton Manning and Tom Brady headlining the MVP vote again this season, there’s a wonder to where Luck and Griffin really fit in these discussions, rookies or not.

Thanksgiving Day Football Classic: Week 12

Thursday, November 22

Houston Texans (10-1) defeat the Detroit Lions (4-7), 34-31 (OT)

Detroit lost its ninth consecutive Thanksgiving Day game in overtime against the Houston Texans. It’s easy to say that the Lions lost the game more than the Texans won it. The storyline is Detroit head coach Jim Schwartz’s challenge flag gone wrong. Schwartz threw a challenge flag when Houston’s  scored on an 81-yard touchdown run in the third quarter after two Lions tackled him.

 

 

Replays showed Forsett’s left knee and elbow hit the turf near midfield, and the automatic review that accompanies all scoring plays probably would have taken the TD off the board. But NFL rules say that throwing the challenge flag on a scoring play negates the review — and is an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty to boot. 

Forsett even acknowledged he shouldn’t have allowed to score.

“It’s on me,” Schwartz said after the game. “It’s on me.”

Defensive Tackle Ndomukong Suh also may be in trouble with the League. There were multiple questionable instances involving Suh and Houston quarterback Matt Schaub. Suh is known all-to-well for his very rough (at times considered dirty) contact with opposing players, especially quarterbacks.

 

On the other side, Houston sealed its tenth victory of the season in a second consecutive overtime matchup. Andre Johnson broke a record for the most receiving yards in consecutive games–273 yards last week against Jacksonville and 188 yards tonight against Detroit marks him at 461 receiving yards in consecutive weeks. Arian Foster ran for 102 yards on 20 carries and Matt Schaub finished 29-48 and 315 yards passing.

The Texans have won consecutive games in overtime this season. Coming into the season, Houston was 1-7 in overtime games.

Washington Redskins (5-6) defeat the Dallas Cowboys (5-6), 38-31.

Robert Griffin the Third is quickly becoming a star in this League. How good was his Thanksgiving Day debut? For the second week in a row, he passed four touchdowns, and while he didn’t post the 93.3% completion that he did against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 11, he threw for 311 yards and posted a quarterback rating of 132.6 (QBR: 87.5). He was simply graceful against the Cowboys; his passes were accurate, they were precise, they were placed flawlessly. Reliable running back Alfred Morris also added 113 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries as the Redskins moved down the field all game long. The Skins lead the Cowboys 28-3 at halftime.

It’s hard to look at Tony Romo’s passer rating and tell that he’s not the best quarterback in the NFL. He has never posted a season passer rating of under 91 and he is third all-time in career passer rating, trailing Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. This season, his passer rating is a career-low at 85.9, and tonight he would post a similar 84.1 passer rating. However, Romo threw two interceptions in his 62 pass attempts, and that overshadowed the 441 yards and 3 touchdowns he threw for on 37 completions (including a career-long 85-yard touchdown pass to Dez Bryant). The Dallas Cowboys’ now-24 turnovers are the second-most in the NFL, trailing only the Kansas City Chiefs. Dallas trailed 28-3 at halftime but a critical sack late in the fourth quarter with Dallas threatening in the red zone when down by two touchdowns sealed the Cowboys fate.

Romo lost for the first time in six starts on Thanksgiving. He also lost his first home start in November ever (24-1). Prior to today, the Cowboys have never lost to the Redskins on Thanksgiving. Morris’ 100-yard day, the last 10 such games for the Redskins have been by rookies.

 

New England Patriots (8-3) defeats the New York Jets (4-7), 49-19.

The New York Jets are simply dismal. The team held New England to zero points in the first quarter, but then reality seemed to set in. New England scored–and yes, this is accurate–28 points in just over six minutes and their 35 points they would score in the NFL would tie a franchise record (set in 2011 versus the in Titans) and now only trail the 1980 Rams for the most points in a single quarter (37 in the second quarter).

Jet fans were chanting for Tim Tebow to play before the second quarter of this Thanksgiving showdown was over, and booing as the team left the MetLife Stadium field at halftime.

The Patriots, however, continued to be the Patriots. Brady’s first eight passes produced three touchdown passes, and he would finish 18 for 28 with 323 yards and exited the game with two minutes left–probably a result of Rob Gronkowski’s injury last week against the Indianapolis Colts in meaningless garbage time in a complete rout.

Bill Belichick became the eight coach in NFL history to record 200 victories. The Patriots, during their 28-point run, scored three touchdowns in under a minute. The only other teams to score three touchdowns in under a minute are the 2002 Seahawks (versus Minnesota) and the 1998 Falcons (versus Carolina). The Patriots, with 49 points scored tonight, have now scored the second-most points in consecutive games in NFL history, with 108. The trail the 1950 Rams, who scored 135 points in consecutive games.